Article Summaries, present to past
A Comparison of Population Projections for BC
March 21, 2013
Population projections for BC reflect an "up and to the right" aspiration.
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G8 Nations Population Projections and Economic Activity
February 12, 2013
Declining population is considered by some to be beneficial for "the environment". On the other hand, declines are considered by some to be detrimental to economic activity. Is there a way to maintain or improve quality of life and prosperity as population growth slows, levels out, or declines?
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Population projections for Parksville Census Agglomeration to 2041
November 23, 2012
Parksville Census Agglomeration is one of the oldest, in terms of median age of residents, regions in Canada. What does the future look like?
While deaths continue to increase and births stay relatively low, below replacement, population can only increase with even more in-migration than out-migration.
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Population projections for Qualicum Beach to 2041
November 20, 2012
With deaths exceeding births by nearly 6 times (600%) and rising, will the fluctuating migration keep the town's total population from declining?
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3 population projections for Canada are compared: the United Nations, Statistics Canada, and WM Population Analysis
October 22, 2012
WM Population Analysis methods provide similar population projection (medium scenario) with the United Nations
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Couple families by presence of children in private households, 2011 counts, children (under 24 years of age), for Canada, provinces and territories
September 19, 2012
Percent of census families with children (under 24 years of age) at home declines.
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Population Analysis of the Nanaimo Regional District
August 15, 2012
Population analysis of the Nanaimo Regional District with age / sex distribution projection to 2041 (new improved animation added September 22, 2012).
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2011 Census Counts versus Projection for Parksville CA
June 13, 2012
Short term population projection comparison with the 2011 Census counts.
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Should Local Parents Question Official Statistics?
June 12, 2012
Some people are saying that a local News Editor attempted to discredit a local parent for "questioning official numbers". What do you think? Did the parent, who asked for enrolment numbers since the school (proposed for closure) was first opened, lead community members including the Mayor astray? Read more ...
Canada, Age Distribution, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 Census Counts
May 30, 2012
Fluctuations in Canada's Age Distribution create a challenge for those dealing with Community plans.
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BC, Age Distribution, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 Census Counts
May 29, 2012
The large shifts in age distribution highlights the dynamics of BC's changing population.
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Participation in Global Knowledge Economy starts Locally
April 18, 2012
Communities that encourage public consultation, scientific inquiry, the exchange of information, thoughtful discussion, and engage students, young and old, in local issues are both better informed and better able to participate, and gain high paying jobs, in the growing global knowledge economy.
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BC's Annual Net Interprovincial Migration is negative for the first time since 2002
April 6, 2012
Alternatives to resource extraction, refinement, and services for tourists and retirees, such as high paying jobs in the global knowledge economy may provide opportunities that reduce the fluctuations in economic activity.
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Nanaimo Regional District Population and Dwelling Counts, 2006 to 2011
March 15, 2012
There were only an estimated 1.7 people per each of the additional private occupied dwellings.
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The population counts for the census subdivisions surrounding the Central Salish Sea
February 20, 2012
There were modest population count increases for some csds, and modest decreases for others. Overall, approximately 3,000 more people were counted in 2011 than were counted in the 2006 census. Read more ....
Population change varies for BC's Regional Districts between 2006 and 2011
February 8, 2012
Southern RDs had population increases while the North experienced declines. See the map of the percent population change for BC RDs between 2006 and 2011.
Is it true, does Statistics Canada consider BC Stats' population estimation methods to be of "better quality"?
January 27, 2012
However, Statistics Canada's Demography Division says that BC Stats' did not consult with the Demography Division regarding BC Stats use of the change in telephone landlines hookups to estimate population change.
Read more... This link goes to another site.
What to Look For in the 2011 Census
January 8, 2012
Population Signatures comparing changes in age distribution with previous census years can reveal important information about the change in number of people by age and sex for communities, towns, cities, regions, and provinces.
Population Signatures can provide relevant information when considering school openings and closures.
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BC Population Change, 3rd Quarter, 2011
December 22, 2011
Not since 2001, has BC's summer time net interprovincial migration been negative. For the third quarter in a row, more people moved out of BC, to other places in Canada, than moved in.
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BC Population Change, 2nd Quarter, 2011
October 1, 2011
Preliminary population estimates suggest BC's economic bust continues. For the second quarter in a row, more people moved out of BC, to other places in Canada, than moved in.
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SUCCESS AT LAST! Now, BC Stats Must Allow Verification of Population Numbers.
September 22, 2011.
After 13 years, the BC provincial government Official Statistical agency, BC Stats, under new management, has revised the population estimation methods paper. Why were the many changes to the population estimation model after 2001 not made public?
The substandard population estimate and forecasts methods (kicking out outliers to reduce error, adopting the change in telephone landlines as an indicator of population change etc.) influenced decision making regarding the opening and closing of public, and private, facilities including health and education facilities. Since 2001, nearly 200 public schools have been closed in BC.
During this "dark" period in BC's Statistics Agency, particularly after 2001, while Don McRae was Executive Director and Dave O'Neil was given a Director position over the Population Section (4 people) many changes were made to the way population numbers were created, including changing numbers outside of the models.
Rather than inform taxpayers, clients, parents and guardians, and Statistics Canada of the changes, BC Statistics and the Ministry responsible provided incorrect methods and numbers.
Read more ... with link to a letter to the new Provincial Statistician & Executive Director, BC Stats, Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government, Angelo Cocco.
Population Geography and Demography, Similarities and Differences
August 2011
Some Demographers still look at migration as a residual. Population Geographers help illuminate "in" and "out" migration, by age and sex, providing insight into changes in social and economic activity.
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Open Data Education portal/website: Verification and Reliability
July 19, 2011
The government is opening up access to information, but is it reliable?
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BC Population Change, 1st Quarter, 2011
June 22, 2011
Interprovincial migration negative once again. Not since 2003, have more people moved out of, than in to, BC.
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InterProvincial Migration, Net, BC, 1971 to 2010, (July 1)
May 2011
Boom and Bust economic cycle comparison.
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Quarterly BC Population Change for 2010: Net International Migration is negative in the last quarter of 2010
April 2011
With the decline in fertility and increase in deaths, fluctuations in net migration could mean the difference between population growth or population declines for BC. In the last quarter of 2010, net interprovincial migration continued to decline while net international migration was negative.
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BC Population Change, Regional Districts, 2009 to 2010
February 2011
Here you will find the descriptions of the factors of population change, including natural changes, (births minus deaths), as well as net migration (interprovincial and intraprovincial) for BCs RDs for the year from July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010.
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BC school closures need independent reviews
January 2011
An examination of the data used to justify the recommendation to close the only high school in Qualicum Beach BC highlights the importance of communities / tax-payers having access to information. Here is a summary of the author's Information Session presentations.
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Royal Society Call for Evidence, the strengths and weaknesses of different population modeling methodologies
October, 2010
People and the Planet: Call for evidence. Compare BC Stats and Statistics Canada's methods and models to estimate population to the regional level.
This is a unique opportunity to compare two Official Statistical Agencies providing
population estimates at the regional level.
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Parksville Census Agglomeration Population Projections, June, 2010
What will the age distribution look like in 2016?
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Population Compendium, June, 2009
Why is distribution of the Annual Demographics Compendium being restricted?
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2008 Population Change, BC, April 2009
Boom time comes to an end again. How long will the down turn last?
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2008 Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, not published, March 2009
Why hasn't Statistics Canada's released the Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas numbers? Take a look and you will see that there is no output posted in late January or early February 2009 for estimates dated 2003 to 2008.
Which Country Won the Most Medals per Population at the 2008 Summer Olympics? September 2008
This article examines the number of medals won by countries relative to the total population, and whether population density makes a difference. Read more (html)... , (pdf)
BC’s Boom and Bust Economy, 1978 to 2006, August 2008
Does BC still have a boom and bust economy? How do we measure boom and busts? Understanding economic cycles, and what interrupts them, helps refine decision making.
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Income and Housing: Urban/Rural Differences/Similarities, June 2008
Housing similarities between largest cities and distant North. Article in Beacon.Read more ...
School Age Population Change in BC and Canada, 1971 to 2007, May 2008
The 2001 census results showed that in Canada, the number of children under 5 years of age declined by 221,545, between 1996 and 2001, almost a quarter of a million fewer children. The much anticipated 2006 census revealed that between 2001 and 2006 the population decline for those under 5 slowed considerably to just 5,745 fewer children. What does the population change look like for BC. Article in Beacon.Read more ...
Immigration and Labour, April 2008
The Minister of Citizenship and Immigration can now admit whoever and how many ever people she/he wants to come into Canada.
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Migration to the Nanaimo Regional District, March 2008
The 2006 Census mobility release provides an estimate of the number of people 5 years of age and older who moved between Census Divisions in Canada (Regional Districts in BC) between 2001 and 2006 (20% sample). The Nanaimo Regional District (RDN), on the east coast of Vancouver Island, is attractive to people in Canada for many reasons including it's relatively warm climate.
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Map of Migration to the Nanaimo Regional District 2001 to 2006, March 2008.
Map of internal migration (within Canada) to the Nanaimo Regional District between 2001 and 2006 (20% sample).
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Aboriginal Identity Reflects Maturing Society, February 2008
Acceptance and cooperation promoted by people of mixed European and Aboriginal ancestry helps make Canada a healthy society. Article in Beacon.
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Global and Local Population Change, January 2008
How does Parksville/Qualicum reflect global population change? It leads Canada as an aging population...something the rest of Canada will go through over the next thirty years. Presentation to Parksville and Qualicum Beach Chambers of Commerce.
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Migration, 2006 Census release, December 2007
Canada is a nation of movers. BC has more residential mobility then Canada as a whole, and the Parksville Census Agglomeration (Oceanside) has even more. The Parksville CA can be characterized as a high turn over community. What does that mean? Weaker social networks and greater reliance on public and privates services.
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Central Vancouver Island, 2006 Census Age Distribution, August 2007
Add to the oscillation in age distribution, the boom and bust nature of a resource based economy, and variations in migration for people of different age groups, Central Vancouver Island is far from a stable community but rather can be best described as a dynamic, fluctuating, high turnover region.
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Population Change in BC between 2001 and 2006, April 2007
The "Boom" time varies across BC, highlighting the end of population expansion and the beginning of contraction.
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Migration between Core and Peripheral Areas, 2005
Fundamentals of booms and busts in economic activity (written while employed as the Population Analyst - BC provincial expert on migration).
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Where do the Children Play, BC, Canada, 2005
Migration of females of reproductive age in BC (written while employed as the Population Analyst - BC provincial expert on migration).
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Intraprovincial Migration, 2004
A closer look at migration between Core and Periphery (written while employed as the Population Analyst - BC provincial expert on migration).
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Spheres of Influence, April 2000
Testing Alternative Indicators of Social and Economic Integration used to delineate Census Metropolitan Areas / Metropolitan Influence Zones (self-directed graduate studies project with the Geography Division of Statistics Canada).
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Infant Mortality Rates, December 1999
Model to interpret variations in Infant Mortality. Defence spending versus education as well as Urban / rural interactions are used as indicators to juxtapose Will versus Reason as well as Structure in relation to Processes. An interaction effect is found where infant mortality rises rapidly where defence spending is high in counties with a high proportion of rural dwellers. These indicators explain ~80% of the variation in IMR (graduate level statistics course term project).
(Read more ...pdf)
Reference from Professor T. A. Nosenchuk, Ph.D. (teacher in the love of wisdom).
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