Should Local Parents Question Official Statistics?
by William Warren Munroe, June 11, 2012

Last weekend, a friend told me my name appeared several times in a newspaper article. The article suggests, a local, who questioned the "official numbers" led astray community members, including the Mayor of Qualicum Beach. Here is a portion of the article, followed by an itemized list of corrections: (After my January 28, 2017 letter to the PQNews was printed in early February 2017 I expanded a portion of Section 8 of this article)


"He [Mayor Westbroek] pointed to recent statistics shown to him by Warren Munroe, a local, amateur statistician. Westbroek said Munroe’s figures show more young families are moving to Qualicum Beach.

'Since I've been mayor, for the last 12 years, more younger families have been [sic] moving in,' Westbroek said. "This is being seen in elementary schools. But it does take 18 years for a child to get to Grade 12."

The census figures do appear to bear out documentation through School District 69 (Qualicum) that at the high school level, there are currently fewer students. Declining enrolment, as a result, led to controversial discussions about the closure of Kwalikum Secondary School. At that time, Munroe had come to prominence in questioning the official numbers.

"It’s not true that the area is losing youth," Westbroek continued, noting that more current stats from Munroe show enrolment is recovering faster than those figures from the school district from close to two years ago.

However, the official census numbers show that the town lost 260 working age (15 to 64) people over the last five years, compared to an increase of 289 in Parksville. (Ambling waves of grey" by Steve Heywood, PQB News, June 1, 2012)


Here are my "Corrections to Statements in "Ambling waves of grey" PQBNews, June 1, 2012".

1. Regarding the statement "Westbroek said Munroe’s figures show more young families are moving to Qualicum Beach." These are not "Munroe’s figures". The "figures" I showed Mayor Westbroek in March 2011, and town council in April 2011, were from the 1996, the 2001, and the 2006 Census from Statistics Canada. Please ensure your readers are provided with the proper source. Such claims require confirmation with the person being named prior to publication. See my Letter to the Editor "Should Local Parents Question Official Statistics?"

2. Regarding the statement "Westbroek said Munroe’s figures show more young families are moving to Qualicum Beach." Using 1996, 2001, and 2006 Census Count numbers from Statistics Canada, we can see, particularly between 2001 and 2006, that more people aged 5 to 17 and those 30 to 50, move in to the Parksville Census Agglomeration (includes Parksville, Qualicum Beach and Nanaimo G also referred to as Oceanside) than out. See Population Signatures.

3. Regarding the statement, "Declining enrolment, as a result, led to controversial discussions about the closure of Kwalikum Secondary School. At that time, Munroe had come to prominence in questioning the official numbers." My involvement was as a parent with two children enrolled in public school. I simply asked the Qualicum School District (QSD) administration staff for the historical enrolment numbers, at least since the high school had opened. Over 2 months later, I received enrolment numbers, from the QSD, from 1983 to 2010. I also asked for and received enrolment numbers from the BC Ministry of Education.

4. The enrolment numbers (from the QSD as well as numbers from the Ministry of Education ...these are not Munroe’s numbers) since 1983 showed that enrolment had declined before and that the forecast "low point" was higher than the previous "lower point". I was simply showing people that enrolment fluctuates.

5. Please recall in January 2011, I asked Mr. Heywood to print the chart in the PQB News showing enrolment numbers since 1983 (numbers provided by the QSD), also including the 3,800 students not shown in the chart on the front page of the October 5, 2010 edition of the PQB News. The PQBNews did not print the chart with the enrolment since 1983 when KSS opened. Mr. Heywood offered to do an interview, but would not allow me to check the article for accuracy prior to printing.

6. Indeed, the funding formula may penalize school districts that expand to accommodate growth only to close schools permanently during the decline side of the cycle. Recall the opening of the $9.1 million expansion to the only high school in the Town of Qualicum Beach 7 years prior to the recommendation for a permanent closure. Please recall your newspaper reporter saw the presentation I gave at the town of Qualicum Beach town council meeting in April 2011, highlighting this point. The PQB News chose again not to report this important information which had added to the public debate on this issue.

7. Regarding the statement "It’s not true that the area is losing youth," Westbroek continued, noting that more current stats from Munroe show enrolment is recovering faster than those figures from the school district from close to two years ago. As mentioned, the "stats" were from 1996, 2001, and 2006 Statistics Canada Censuses. Why are these years are referred to as current?

8. Regarding the statement "It’s not true that the area is losing youth," Westbroek continued, noting that more current stats from Munroe show enrolment is recovering faster than those figures from the school district from close to two years ago.

This statement is simply incorrect. It looks like you are comparing enrolment numbers with census numbers. How can the 1996, 2001, and 2006 census show that enrolment is recovering faster? This does not make sense.

Rather, as I pointed out in my May 15, 2008 "School Age Population Change in BC and Canada, 1971 to 2007" Statistics Canada's population estimates showed that enrolment will likely be higher than expected.

Mr. Heywood, your statement makes it sound like I had "more current stats that show enrolment is recovering faster". This statement is simply wrong. A simple solution would be to communicate with the people whom you are referring to, such as myself, in the future.

As mentioned, these were not my numbers, they are from Statistics Canada. To see whether an area is attractive to families check age counts from Canada's Census of Population available via Statistics Canada's website. You can check them yourself. The censuses show that this area attracts more people 30 to 49 and 5 to 14 years of age. From one census to the next, more move in than move out. The reason the number of people of working age (15 to 64) is going down is because the baby boomers are aging out of the working age group 15 to 64. Because the number of people 15 to 64 is going down, does not necessarily mean that this area is not attractive to families (5 to 14 and 30 to 49 year olds). (this expanded addition was posted February 7, 2017)

9. Perhaps you are referring to the numbers from the QSD and the Ministry of Education? I did a chart that includes international students in the estimates and the forecast as these students were not included in the District Facilities Review, Qualicum School District report recommending a school closure (December 2010). May I suggest that you compare apples with apples and oranges with oranges. Again, see www.wminfomatics /popgeog/pgforum/qsdfris.html.

10. Regarding the statement "stats from Munroe show enrolment is recovering faster than those figures from the school district from close to two years ago. However, the official census numbers show" Such claims can reasonably be seen to discredit the local parent, and local business person specializing Population Analysis. Such claims require confirmation with the person being named prior to publication.

11. Regarding your first reference to my name, "Warren Munroe, a local, amateur statistician", you requested I provide you with a descriptor of one or two words (June 6, 2012), for articles about "official numbers" you refer to as "documentation through School District 69 (Qualicum )" please refer to me as Warren Munroe, a local parent.


Letter to the Editor.

To: The Publisher and the Editor, Parksville Qualicum Beach News

I would appreciate an apology be printed in the next edition of the Parksville Qualicum Beach News (PQB News), on the front page where the erred article appeared, something to the effect of the following: The PQB News apologizes for having made incorrect, and defamatory statements about a local parent, Warren Munroe, who asked questions about "official numbers". PQB News did not contact Mr. Munroe prior to publication of the article "Ambling waves of grey", by Steve Heywood, June 1, 2012. The PQB News recognizes the importance of contacting "a local" to use Mr. Heywood’s words, including local parents such as Mr. Munroe, who question "official statistics", in order to ensure proper sourcing and accuracy.

I would also ask that you please print the following as a letter to the Editor or article, however it fits in its entirety:

Should Local Parents Question Official Statistics? By Warren Munroe

Sir,

Please ensure your readers are aware of corrections to the article, "Ambling waves of grey" PQB News, June 1, 2012. You refer to "Munroe’s figures" and stats from Munroe". The numbers referred to are not Munroe’s, but rather, Statistics Canada’s 1996, 2001, 2006 Census Counts.

Regarding enrolment numbers, these are not Munroe’s, but rather, the Qualicum School District’s (QSD) and the Ministry of Education’s enrolment numbers. Indeed, you inadvertently compare Statistics Canada with Qualicum School District numbers much like comparing apples to oranges. This would not have happened but for your newspaper’s policy of not allowing subjects to read articles prior to printing to ensure proper sourcing and accuracy. Thank you for changing this policy.

Also, your article insinuates "a local" parent, led community members astray, including the Mayor of Qualicum Beach.

Please be aware, locals can contribute information of relevance in an effort to find alternatives to closing a school permanently, a recommendation made only 7 years after opening a $9.1 million expansion.

Indeed, the enrolment numbers I requested of the QSD going back to 1983 show that enrolment had declined in the 1980’s to lower levels than the forecasted low. Enrolment can rise and fall as the boom is followed by a bust, followed by an echo, and so on.

Also, another contribution, arising locally and having an impact provincially, is that after questioning official methods, BC Stats began publishing the changes they have been making to their population estimation methods, for the first time since 1998.

Your statement that "current stats from Munroe show enrolment is recovering faster than figures from the school district" is simply not true. As mentioned, these were not my numbers and they covered the period from 1996 to 2006 - numbers from Canada's Census of Population available via Statistics Canada's website. You can check them yourself. They show that the area attracts more people 30 to 49 and 5 to 14. More move in than move out. The reason the number of people of working age is going down is because the baby boomers are aging out of the working age group 15 to 64. Because the number of people 15 to 64 is going down, does not mean that more children and their parents/guardians are moving out than in. (revision February 2017)

Regarding the enrolment numbers provided by SD69, I did add international students as these were not included in the chart printed on the front page of the PQB News October 5, 2010. I requested that you print the revised chart but this was not done. See www.wminfomatics /popgeog/pgforum/qsdfris.html.

Regarding your statements "Munroe’s figures show more young families are moving to Qualicum Beach." Please be aware the 1996, 2001, and 2006 Statistic Canada’s Census Counts by Age and Sex show that more people of the ages 5 to 17, plus those 30 to 50 years moved in to, than out of, the Parksville Census Agglomeration (Parksville, Qualicum Beach, Nanaimo G) also referred to as Oceanside. See www.wminfomatics/wmanalytics/articles/120108/PopSigSD.html

Locals should never be discouraged from asking questions. We certainly don't want small groups of people with-holding data that is being used to justify opening and closing of facilities etc., nor do we want newspapers demeaning locals for asking questions.

As you aware, I earned a Master of Arts majoring in Geography, specializing in statistics and population, from Carleton University in Ottawa, where I worked closely with adjunct professors from Statistics Canada, and I have a Population Research and Analysis consulting business in Qualicum Beach, as well as having served as BC’s Population Analyst and the provincial expert on migration from 2002 to 2006.

There is a flood of data already upon us and we need more people who can organize, interpret, and explain it. I recently sponsored a student from Vancouver Island University, Erin Phillip, who did a public presentation of her study of the effects on transportation for alternative school closure scenarios. Perhaps someday, the QSD will allow students to use the same data sent to outside consultants, and will also fund such research.

Communities (including their newspapers) that encourage public consultation, scientific inquiry, the exchange of information, thoughtful discussion, and engage students, young and old in local and global issues are both better informed and better able to participate, and gain high paying jobs, in the growing global knowledge economy.

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