BC Population Change, 3rd Quarter, 2011
by William Warren Munroe, December 2011

Net Interprovincial Migration estimated to be negative for the third quarter in a row.

Statistics Canada has released the 3rd Quarter, 2011, preliminary estimates of the components of population change for the provincial and territories.

Between July 1, 2011 and September 30, 2011, Statistics Canada's estimates of net interprovincial migration (in minus out) for BC was negative at approximately -725 people.

For the third quarter in a row, the interprovincial net migration for BC was negative, with more people moving out, than into, the province from other parts of Canada.

Figure #1: Net Interprovincial Migration, BC, Quarterly, July 2001 to September 30 2011

Interprovincial migration is an excellent indicator of economic activity in Canada. There is arguably no better way to tell if the economy is in a boom time or a bust time.

The chart above shows quarterly net interprovincial migration to be rather spikey. It can rise and drop sharply from one quarter to the next. Usually during the summer quarter, July to the end of September, more people move.

Estimates show this summer's interprovincial migration was negative. The last summer to have negative interprovincial migration was 2001.

Understanding variations in economic activity provides insight into natural / long cycles as well as variables that can impact migrations and economic activity. When will interprovincial migration and the economy likely recover?


Quarterly population estimates and factors of growth, provincial perspective - British Columbia

Table 3-11, Quarterly estimates of demographic components, provincial perspective - British Columbia http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2011001/t344-eng.htm

Quarterly Demographic Estimates - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=91-002-X&chropg=1&lang=eng

See the Data quality, concepts and methodology: Explanatory notes for the tables at http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2011002/technote-notetech3-eng.htm

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