Data Warning - BC Stats Population Numbers
This is the original Data Warning webpage posted in April 2008, with some revisions. After being fired in February 2006 (while a grievance was before the Deputy Minister) and two years of denying mediation and arbitration, I was told by the Labour Relations Board of the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services that there was no time limit on how long they can take to address my case. Therefore, I began informing clients such as BC Hydro, School District administrators etc, about the real methods used to create population numbers, with reference to this webpage.
Why are Population estimates and forecasts important?

Population estimates and projections are used to justify the opening and closing of public and private facilities. The numbers are used to determine insurance rates for municipalities, and to address transportation and electrical generation needs as well as other important issues. Population estimates and projections are used as a basis upon which decisions are made, therefore it is helpful to know how these numbers are "created".

The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services, BC Stats, and the Government of British Columbia should be held accountable for the production of population numbers. By being open to public scrutiny of the real methods and models, there is an opportunity to improve the reliability of the information produced by the government. Independent statisticians should be allowed to audit BC Stats methods and models.

Purpose:

The purpose of this webpage is to inform people about how population numbers are created by BC Stats in the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services for the Government of British Columbia and to warn employees, especially those who provide the public with reliable information, how constructive dismissals are created and supported.

Also, tax payers are paying extra for BC Stats to produce unreliable population numbers while the rest of the country (except for Quebec which also creates its own numbers) benefits from annual population numbers to the Census Division level (referred to as Regional Districts in BC) from Statistics Canada. People and users of population numbers will benefit from the higher standards and the use of proper statistical techniques used by Statistics Canada.

How does BC Stats create population numbers

This webpage covers two main aspects of the creation of population numbers by BC Stats in the Ministry of Labour and Citizen's Services: 1) the methods and models used, (are they sound?), and 2) the working environment, (are mistakes addressed and improvements made?).

1) Methods and Models Warning:

BC Stats purchases Telus data and uses the change in the number of telephone land lines as an indicator of population change along with electrical hookups. Using Telus data is problematic for two main reasons. Telus data drives down the population estimates for the Lower Mainland due to relatively higher cell phone use. While employed as a population analyst with BC Stats, I requested a methods paper showing the testing of this variable but never received one. This paper should be written and made public. Instead I was told that the reason that telephone land lines are used is that "two indicators look better than one" (Don McRae, Director of BC Stats). There are many examples of how BC Stats was more interested in appearance rather than substance. Another problem with using telephone together with electrical land line hookups is something referred to by statisticians as co-linearity. This term refers to the use of indicators that are essentially the same, therefore they over state the amount the independent variables explain about the dependent variable....these variables should be independent.

The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services produces annual population "projections" for the next thirty years and sends the results to the Ministry of Finance for adjustment. I was told, after weeks of trying to find out why the migration numbers were different than the model results, that the Ministry of Finance had lowered the numbers because if migration to the province was higher than expected the government would "look good" (Don McRae).

The term "projection" implies impartiality in the creation of the population numbers for the future. They are numbers based on trends found in the historical estimates. Forecasts are numbers created with some assumptions that are open to discussion. The terms "projection" and "forecast" should not be used to describe the future population numbers published by BC Stats. The term population "projections" should be changed to something more accurate...your suggestions are welcome.

The Ministry of Health pays for the Population Projections (referred to as the P.E.O.P.L.E. series), but is not informed about adjustments made outside of the models. The Ministry of Education also uses the population numbers. The adjustments should be made clear to the analysts (rather than hide the fact that the Ministry of Finance has changed the numbers) and they should be made clear to other clients and to the public. When people go to meetings about the closing of schools for example, they should know how the population numbers have been adjusted. Statistics Canada does not send its products to the federal Ministry of Finance for adjustment.

After the adjustments are made by the Ministry of Finance, the sub-provincial population numbers are generated. Then the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services sends the results to the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) for adjustment, but not to any other Regional District. What is interesting is that the GVRD uses an independent contractor for its population forecasts while the rest of BC uses the Ministry of Labour and Citizen’s, BCStats numbers. Statistics Canada does not send its products to Metro Toronto for adjustment and no other region of the country.

In the spring of 2005, the manager of BC Stats Population Section had a conference call with the GVRD which myself and a co-worker attended. The GVRD pointed out that the estimates were far too low especially for Richmond and Burnaby (cell phone use). After the conference call with the GVRD, I was told on several occasions to take people out of high growth areas such as Comox/Courtenay and Kelowna and put them into the Lower Mainland. I refused and was subjected to a constructive dismissal. Statistics Canada would not tell analysts to move people out of the rest of the country and put them into Metro Toronto.

Also, people should be aware that BC municipalities and aggregated unorganized areas in Regional Districts are split into two groups based on a flawed procedure. Electrical hookup data is provided to the Ministry by BC Hydro and Fortis. Unfortunately, after joining these datasets, all of the municipalities in Fortis area were found to have an increase in the number of people per household and are treated differently than most of the rest of the province (Surrey is included with the Fortis municipalities). It was obvious that there was a problem in joining the data from the two different sources. My requests for a review of the joining and splitting were considered confrontational. Other deficiencies include how the Provincial Electoral District Population Estimates and Projections were "created".

BC Stats should be referred as BC Perspectives or BC Perceptions:

During a CBC radio interview (December 2007) with the Director of BC Stats, the host mistakenly suggested that BC Stats works closely with Statistics Canada on the 2006 Census migration release. In fact, they do not work closely together, and indeed they are at odds with each other (see letter to CBC regarding interview with the Director of BC Stats). Statistics Canada warns users of the Demographics Estimates Compendium why BC's population numbers do not add up.

Statistics Canada's warning about BC Stats Population figures found in the annual "Demographic Estimates Compendium 2006", published in 2007:
"With the exception of British Columbia, preliminary estimates for July 1, 2006 were produced using the component method. The population estimates for this province were created by its respective agency. As a result, the sum of components does not equal the population growth for 2005-2006."

The "Demographic Estimates Compendium 2007" , published in April 2008, also has the same warning for 2007.

The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services must ensure that people are not misled into thinking that population numbers are created using statistical methods; therefore, the name "BC Stats" should be changed to accurately reflect the way numbers are created. Possible names could be BC Perspectives or BC Perceptions.

Public Debate about Population Numbers

I invite Don McRae, the Director of BC Stats since 2003, to an open public discussion about BC Stats and Statistics Canada population numbers.

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2) The Working Environment:

There are many other examples of deficiencies in the Ministry including how databases are misplaced, mislabelled, and mismanaged. Also, innovators and people who provide creative solutions are subjected to constructive dismissals. I was told that "there are always problems and to get over it". Astoundingly, my co-workers would go on 45 minute coffee breaks and use the color printer for personal photos. I was not to use the color printer again after I produced a spatial interpolation map of the change in the number of births. This map highlighted Surrey as being four standard deviations from the norm. I suggested that births be included as an indicator of population change; however, the manager said that such mapping techniques and the results were irrelevant.

When I made improvements to methods, models, and database management, thereby reducing cost and time and errors, I was yelled at by every member of the Population Section and called an "idiot", "stupid", etc. etc. When I asked my co-workers to ask rather than yell, the manager called me into his office, pulled out a long ruler and slapping his hand with it told me never to ask my co-workers to ask rather than yell again. The manager was given the position without a fair and open competition. Indeed, the Deputy Minister stepped in to ensure that other capable people were excluded from competing for the position. See the Journal page and scroll to Spring 2004

The mission statement from the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services is to encourage results oriented, creative solutions, but instead the Ministry is a perfect example of how tax funded organizations stifle innovation. Be sure to watch the video as it shows examples of animated data like the animation that I created for BC Stats to show migration, to and from core areas over time, as commodity prices fluctuate.

I requested mediation (starting with project planning courses, then team effectiveness training and work place skills courses) through the BCGEU and the BCPSA but the manager stated that this would "only make things worse" and he got my co-workers, the ones who had been yelling at me, to complain that I made them feel unsafe. I again requested mediation and even asked for a transfer but this was denied. The BCGEU sided with the manager. The manager had been a long time employee and shop steward and a union representative in the Article 29 negotiations. The Ministry's contracted lawyer stated that my requests for mediation were considered by the manager to be a "game of chicken" (?...Bizarre). Also, the Deputy Minister considered that my use of the term "constructive solutions" meant that I had abandoned my grievance (?...Bizarre as well). I was fired and mediation and arbitration were refused.

The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services is working hard to maintain its ability to change population numbers and to maintain its ability to intimidate employees.

I requested mediation to address the quality of the work and the yelling before being fired and have spent almost three years attempting to get arbitration. In January 2008, I found out that there was no time limit for a response from the Labour Relations Board (LRB); therefore, I began to inform population data users, such as BC Hydro, as well as the media, and the opposition party (the NDP), and the Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services about the use of perks and intimidation used to coerce analysts into changing population numbers. In May 2008, the Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services assured me that she would not influence the LRB ruling. In June 2008, the LRB ruled to deny arbitration and natural justice. The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services oversees the LRB.

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Concluding Remarks:

The use of the term "statistics" implies the use of impartial methods and models in an attempt to refer to reality. BC Stats should not be referred to as a "statistical agency" but rather would more accurately be referred to as BC Perspectives or BC Perceptions. If BC Stats wants people to think that they are a statistical agency there should be a full public inquiry into how population numbers are created. Independent statisticians and the public should be allowed to scrutinize the population section's methods and models. These problems should be viewed as an opportunity for improvement either by revamping BC Stats and the Population Section (5 people in the Population Section do the job of 2), or by supporting Statistics Canada in providing population estimates and forecasts for BC. Indeed, the only reason that British Columbians pay extra taxes for BC Stats and the Population Section is so that the provincial government can adjust the data using non-statistical methods.

BC Stats is interested in appearance rather than substance. The examples include kicking out outliers (statistically unacceptable practice), adding Telus data without proper testing, changing numbers outside of the methods and models, accepting adjustments from other Ministries and from one Regional District etc., etc. When I told users of the population numbers how the numbers were created, I was considered a threat, rather than accountable, and subjected to a constructive dismissal. The BCGEU sided with the long term employees and with management.

BC Stats sets up the work place to have a scapegoat to take the blame for failings in the work, as well as the organization. The work place is set up to have one person forced to the bottom of a hierarchy who is excluded from meetings, both formal and informal, who is to take responsibility for mistakes made by co-workers, as well as mistakes in the methods and models, and sign off on work done incorrectly.

The scapegoat is stripped of responsibility of overseeing projects and instead is given more and more of the co-workers menials tasks with less and less time, directed to use the wrong datasets, wrong tools, and wrong instructions, and is yelled at when he or she fixes the co-workers mistakes and make improvements.

When the scapegoat asks for help in creating a positive work environment to address the yelling and the work, (one where people work towards the goals of providing reliable information, being accountable, results oriented and innovative, providing creative solutions, encouraging team work) he or she gets blamed for the problems and gets fired if he or she continues to advocate improvements.

Please let me know if you think that I was right or wrong in refusing to arbitrarily change population numbers and for requesting mediation to address the yelling in the BC Stats population section. Also, please make suggestions for new names for BC Stats. Most people have suggested BC Propaganda.

Please verify the statements made here and find out for yourselves how the population numbers are created. Please contact the Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services and ask about the methods and models used to create population numbers, about the use of telephone land line hookups to estimate population change, the role of the various Ministries in the creation and use of these numbers, the adjustments from the GVRD (and no other Regional District), the publication of real methods papers, accountability in providing reliable information, etc.

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List of some Methods and Modeling Deficiencies.

Links will be added as articles are posted:

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Work Place Deficiencies.

The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services supports the creation of constructive dismissals for being innovative, results oriented, and finding constructive solutions to improve government products and services. The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services is more interested in manipulating data than making improvements in population estimates and "projections".

  • "There are always problems, get over it". Co-worker's response to improved process which reduced error and time. The improved process was rejected.
  • Innovators Beware. Emails sent to Innovations Inventory requesting information on how to create "a positive, supportive, inclusive, and improvement-focused work environment" (July 2005) and my Client Services HR Consultant, Carol Gore's response.
  • I described how the negative work environment is similar to the Stanford University Prison Experiment where my co-workers were given the role of prison guards and I was the prisoner (November 2005).
  • Email to the Director of BC Stats, Don McRae, requesting mediation (November 2005). No response.
  • I described to the shop steward how I felt sick to my stomach about the intimidation from BC Stats in February 2006 after I was told to vacate the building and turn in my security pass. The Director, Don McRae, had said that I should realize that there is a military side to government.
  • Email sent to the Minister of Labour and Citizen's Services and lawyer about the Milgram Experiment and being treated like a prisoner when employed by BC Stats (September 2006). No response.
  • Other examples of Mobbing and Bullying in the work place
  • More about Mobbing and Bullying in the work place
  • The BC Human Rights Tribunal submission. The BCHRT will not rule on whether creating a constructive dismissal, bullying and mobbing for being innovative, results oriented, and finding constructive solutions to improve government products and services is acceptable or not. I was told to go to the BC Supreme Court. Any assistance would be appreciated.
  • Jan O'Brien of the BCGEU says that I can trust her, but instead the BCGEU and the BCPSA continued their collusion in setting up a Catch 22. The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services complained that I did not get my grievance in to the Deputy Minister on time (I got it in on May 1, 2006 and I had until May 28, 2006 to get it in ) and that I was not suppose to inform the Deputy Minister of my grievance which is my right under the Master Agreement.

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