The purpose of this website is:
- to promote awareness, education, and understanding about the ways population estimates and projections are created, - population estimates and projections are paid for by British Columbians, used to count British Columbians, for the benefit of all British Columbians.
- to correct the statements about me posted online by people in positions of government authority in BC, including those in the BC Public Service Agency, the BC Government Employees Union, the BC Labour Relations Board, BC Statistics, as well as Arbitrator Vince Ready,
- to provide a public record of my efforts to implement formal policies and clear accountabilities for the review processes of analytic products as set out by Former Statistics Canada Chief Statistician, Ivan Fellegi, including population numbers created by Canada’s Official Statistical Agencies:
Readers should be aware, senior public officials overseeing British Columbia's Official Statistical Agency, BC Statistics, can change methods and data without peer review and without informing the public. For example, BC Statistics officials provided incorrect methods and data accompanying population numbers to citizens addressing public school closures1 as well as to Statistics Canada and Finance Canada addressing equalization payments2.
As well, government officials have attempted to cover-up the falsification of reports to Statistics Canada addressing equalization payments claiming:
Also in the spring of 2012, Premier Clark declared Victoria British Columbia has a "sick culture".
When informed about the falsification of reports / fraud, former BC Statistics Executive Director, Angelo Cocco responded:
While government officials overseeing BC Statistics committed fraud, the corruption is also a result of systemic problems where position and authority and trying to "look good" are thought to be more important than publishing the correct methods and data to accompany population estimates and projections.
I contend I was accused of making co-workers feel unsafe, after I raised concerns about the non-statistical and substandard methods and models, and removed from BC's public service, because I was in a position as a Population Analyst to discover the falsification of reports to Statistics Canada in 2004 and 2005 for an assessment of methods for Canada's equalization payments. I contend the falsification was done to hide the unreasonable, unjustifiable, non peer reviewed, not published, not verifiable, invalid (cannot be validated) method and data used by BC Statistics to come up with "unfounded" population numbers and error estimates.
For an open, verifiable, valid set of well-defined population projection scenarios go to the Population Projection Project
1 The 1998 methods were revised in 2011 stating some of the changes during this time period "After extensive analyses it was later determined that telephone line data (Telus) was a suitable indicator and was subsequently added to the model in 2000. With the availability of the 2001 census and further model development it was indicated that the OAS data were no longer statistically significant and were dropped from the model in 2003." P. 8 GENERALIZATION ESTIMATION SYSTEM (GES) Small Area Population Estimation, Method and Error Evaluation, August 2011, (GES 2011).
2 "BC Stats produces its CSD-level population estimates using regression methods with specific symptomatic indicators (number of residential electrical connections and Old Age Security (OAS) recipients). For more details on the methodology, see Generalized Estimation System (GES), Small Area Population Estimation Methodology published by BC Stats in 1998 and available on their website. "The Equalization Program and the Property Tax Base: Feasibility Study Conducted by Statistics Canada", February 28, 2005, p. 63 Conclusions of Finance Canada received June 18, 2012
3Response to request through Freedom of Information for the source of the quote asserting the "integrity" of BC Statistics (June 22, 2012)