Bringing Honesty and Integrity to Population Estimates and Projections

People in positions of authority within British Columbia's Official Statistical Agency, BC Statistics, have been found to have knowingly provided incorrect population estimation methods and unfounded numbers to parents/guardians and concerned citizens addressing public school closures1 as well as to Statistics Canada and Finance Canada addressing equalization payments.2.

As well, government officials have attempted to cover-up the falsification of reports to Statistics Canada for equalization payments claiming:

When informed about the falsification of reports / fraud, former BC Statistics Executive Director, Angelo Cocco responded:

"we do not see value in continuing to respond to enquiries of a similar nature" (Assistant Deputy Minister, Service BC, former BC Statistics Executive Director, Angelo Cocco, September 2013)

By withholding citations and providing incorrect information, BC Statistics (and it's Executive Directors, Don McRae, Angelo Cocco, and Marvin Paxman), can reasonably be seen to lack integrity.

For an open, verifiable, valid set of well-defined population projection scenarios go to the Population Projection Project


The purpose of this website is to:

Promote awareness, education, and understanding about the ways population estimates and projections for BC’s municipalities are changed; for example, how the Ministry of Finance changes interprovincial migration projections "to look good" (Don McRae, Exectutive Director BC Statistics, April 2005),

Correct the statements about me posted online by people in positions of government authority in BC, including those in the BC Public Service Agency, the BC Government Employees Union, the BC Labour Relations Board, BC Statistics, as well as Arbitrator Vince Ready.

Provide a public record of my efforts to implement formal policies and clear accountabilities for the review processes of analytic products, including population estimates and projections, used to inform policy, including analytical products created by Canada’s Official Statistical Agencies, as set out by Former Statistics Canada Chief Statistician, Ivan Fellegi :

"The widespread nature of analytic activities, and the intrinsic risks that are associated with it, required that we develop formal policies and assign clear accountabilities for the review processes that we consider as being essential."
"We therefore have a written policy which mandates that all analytic products must be subjected to a dual review: by peers and by supervisors. The director of any area which is engaged in analytic activities is responsible for managing the execution of the policy of dual review and to monitor its effectiveness."

While individuals committed fraud, the corruption is also a result of systemic problems where position and authority, and trying to "look good", are more important than referring to reality as is required in statistical analysis.


Endnotes

1 The 1998 methods were revised in 2011 stating some of the changes during this time period "After extensive analyses it was later determined that telephone line data (Telus) was a suitable indicator and was subsequently added to the model in 2000. With the availability of the 2001 census and further model development it was indicated that the OAS data were no longer statistically significant and were dropped from the model in 2003." P. 8 GENERALIZATION ESTIMATION SYSTEM (GES) Small Area Population Estimation, Method and Error Evaluation, August 2011, (GES 2011).

2 "BC Stats produces its CSD-level population estimates using regression methods with specific symptomatic indicators (number of residential electrical connections and Old Age Security (OAS) recipients). For more details on the methodology, see Generalized Estimation System (GES), Small Area Population Estimation Methodology published by BC Stats in 1998 and available on their website. "The Equalization Program and the Property Tax Base: Feasibility Study Conducted by Statistics Canada", February 28, 2005, p. 63 Conclusions of Finance Canada received June 18, 2012


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