The Government of British Columbia's Official Statistical Agency, BC Statistics, has been found to have knowingly disseminated incorrect population estimation methods and numbers1 as well as attemping to cover-up false reporting by withholding citations for the quotes used to assert BC Statistics' integrity claiming "disclosure harmful to intergovernmental relations and negotiations."2 By withholding citations and providing incorrect information, BC Statistics actions can reasonably be seen to demonstrate a lack of integrity.
The Ministries responsible continue to block arbitration and disclosure of the real methods used by BC Statistics to create population numbers.
Please be sure to verify and reproduce numbers disseminated by BC Statistics - methods and numbers are proven to have been changed many times without informing users including parents attending meetings to address school closures, as well as Statistics Canada assessing methods for Finance Canada for equalization payments.3
For population numbers using open verifiable methods based on publicly available inputs, namely Statistics Canada's census counts, please visit the Population Projection Project at http://www.wminfomatics.com/PopulationProjections/About.html
Following, you will find correspondence regarding the real methods used by those in positions of authority in the Government of British Columbia to create population numbers, used in turn to justify opening and closing public facilities, as well as to determine municipal insurance fees, electoral boundary changes etc..
BC Statistics "safeguards integrity": Open Honesty or Double Speak?
January 23, 2014
Do you agree, that in order to safeguard the integrity of BC Statistics, correct methods must accompany numbers and citations must accompany quotes?
BC Statistics "safeguards integrity": Open Honesty or Double Speak?
December 30, 2013
Regarding the statement made by Mr. Angelo Cocco,
"BC Stats’ provincial ministry clients, and Statistics Canada, are quite satisfied with the quality of outputs associated with BC Stats’ sub-provincial population estimates program."
Thank you for authorizing Mr. Cocco’s investigation into the "quality of outputs associated with BC Stats".
As you know, the quality of BC Stats’ outputs are also of importance to community members addressing public facility reviews including education and health facilities as well as BC Hydro for electrical generation needs ect.
May we please see the investigation including the authors, their methods, who was contacted, and the responses and the dates?
Given that you have the authority, will you remove the block to disclosure of the real methods used by BC Statistics?
ServiceBC "safeguards" BC Statistics' "integrity".
October 10, 2013
"integrity" refers to: the state of being complete or whole (undivided).” (http://www.merriamwebster.com/dictionary/integrity); therefore,
- a) correct methods must accompany findings, rather than incorrect methods accompanying unfounded numbers,
- b) proposed changes to methods must be open to review, rather than not open to review
- c) changes to methods must be disclosed, rather than hidden
- d) citations for quotes must be provided, rather than withheld
- e) must continue to employ a person who advocates practices (a to d) exemplifying integrity, rather than refuse to continue to employ that person.
Given that you have the authority, will you remove the block to disclosure of the real methods used by BC Statistics?
ServiceBC representative and former Executive Director of BC Statistics, Angelo Cocco, not capable of being objective regarding false statements from BC Statistics
October 9, 2013
I am sure you understand that you can reasonably be seen as being not impartial regarding these matters. Mr. Cocco, will you inform Minister of Citizens' Services, Andrew Wilkinson, that you can reasonably be considered to be not impartial and that your opinion (September 16, 2013 email) not be used to justify maintaining the block to arbitration into the real matters in dispute?
ServiceBC sees "no value" in discussing BC Statistics' false reporting
September 16, 2013
Acting ServiceBC Assistant Deputy Minister and former Executive Director of BC Statistics, Angelo Cocco, is not interested in addressing false reporting by BC Statistics.
Regarding my request to MLA Stilwell "we do not see value in continuing to respond to enquiries of a similar nature" Sincerely, Angelo Cocco.
MLA Stilwell will forward concerns to Minister responsible for BC Statistics
July 10, 2013
"Please endorse the provision of citations to accompany quotes (rather than claiming disclosure harmful), and the provision of correct methods to accompany findings (rather than incorrect methods).
The provision of citations and correct methods are compatible with the Federation for Humanities and Social Sciences' "commitment to the importance of peer-reviewed research and the need for rigorous research to inform evidence-based policy-making"."
Presentation to the 2013 Congress organized by the Federation of Humanities and Social Sciences
June 6, 2013
Guess who was in the audience at my presentation "Population Projections for Community Members" - the people from BC Statistics who, after I raised concerns about the non-statistical and substandard Methods and models (including using the change in telephone landline hookups as an indicator of population change), accused me of not being able to control my behaviour, making my co-workers fear for their safety. What a bunch.
When I described the need to verify Official Population Projections, showing the audience of Demographers from around the world, how BC Statistics falsified methods and population numbers, the people from BC Statistics turned darker and darker shades of red.
"We found that the methods provided by BC Statistics to community members and to Statistics Canada were not the methods used to create population numbers." Why Verify Official Population Projections
Human Rights Grievance Used to Block Disclosure of False Reporting by BC Statistics
May 28, 2013
Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services blocked arbitration, and further disclosure of false reporting by BC Statistics, by claiming that informing the Deputy Minister of racial slurs is considered going down the "wrong channel".
This claim violates the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, Section 15 (1) wherein Canadians cannot be denied protection under the law because of ideas of race and mental disabilities (not being able to control behaviour, namely, using scientific methods)
"Every individual is equal before and under the law and has the right to the equal protection and equal benefit of the law without discrimination and, in particular, without discrimination based on race, national or ethnic origin, colour, religion, sex, age or mental or physical disability."
Consequently, the Ministry's justification used to block disclosure of false reporting is illegal. Letter to BC Attorney General.
Email to Finance Canada,
February 14, 2013
Please be aware, the methods and error of closure calculations provided by BC Stats to Statistics Canada used in the "The Equalization Program and the Property Tax Base: Feasibility Study Conducted by Statistics Canada", February 28, 2005, (referred to herein as the Conclusions to Finance) are incorrect.
Attached, you will find a copy of the letter sent to Statistics Canada’s Demography Division and the Minister responsible for BC Statistics October 19, 2012, as well as a letter January 31, 2013.
Will Finance Canada please advocate that there be an open public debate regarding the real methods used to create population numbers in Canada?
Letter to Ministers Ben Stewart and Pat Bell, sent January 31, 2013, hand delivered on February 6, 2013.
January 31, 2013, February 6, 2013
The Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services, and Open Government Population Analyst position requires a Graduate (Masters/PhD) level education.
"graduate students are required to provide ... any and all sources of any quotation they use in their written work".
Yet, the Ministry responsible (Labour, Citizens' Services, and Open Government) will not provide the source of the quotes used to assert the "integrity" of BC Stats, claiming ...
"Disclosure harmful to intergovernmental relations or negotiations."
Read the letter to Ministers Ben Stewart and Pat Bell
Letter from BC Auditor General's Office
December 4, 2012
Reply regarding September 28 and October 19 requests for audit of BC Statistics.
"The concern that you raise about quality assurance interests us because it is one of the key indicators for organizations whose work must be credible as a source for others to rely on."
Read the letter from the BC Auditor General's Office
Assessment of BC Statistics report denied - "Open Government" Ministry representatives consider disclosure "harmful".
October 19, 2012
"disclosure" of the source of the quotations used to assert the integrity of BC Stats considered "harmful to intergovernmental relations or negotiations."
"Since the Ministry, and BC Stats have demonstrated a lack of willingness to share evidence, the Ministry and BC Stats can reasonably be seen to demonstrate a lack integrity"
Read the letter to Statistics Canada and Minister Ben Stewart
Request to the Auditor General to audit BC Stats
September 28, 2012
"Could you please audit BC Stats. I can provide a written statement and evidence regarding the real methods used to create false population numbers, as well as the real methods used to create the numbers that BC Stats sends to Statistics Canada."
Read the email to the Auditor General
BC Stats sent incorrect methods and numbers to Statistics Canada. Review of BC Stats integrity and independence is required
September 13, 2012
"Statistics Canada’s Demography Division has confirmed (again) that BC Stats did not inform Statistics Canada (STC) of the real methods used to create the population estimates (June 18, 2012). Nor did BC Stats provide the correct error calculations. To be clear, BC Stats sent incorrect methods and numbers to Statistics Canada to be used in the report to Finance Canada to provide the best method to determine equalization payments ."
Read the letter to the Minister of Justice, Shirley Bond
Letter from David Merner of the Ministry of Justice denying request for resolution.
August 13, 2012
"To do so would compromise the integrity and independence of these dispute resolution processes."
Read the letter from David Merner of the Ministry of Justice, Dispute Resolutions Office
Letter to the Minister of Justice explaining the real methods used to create population numbers
July 20, 2012
the Ministry of Attorney General provides civil legal services to ministries to assist them in fulfilling their business objectives, objectives which must include the purpose of the Public Service Act, in accordance with the rule of law, and is responsible for the province’s human rights system.
Read the letter to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General, Shirley Bond with minor edits (Section 32 should read 36)
Letter to Statistics Canada Demography Division regarding real methods used by BC Stats
June 25, 2012
Regarding your statement "At that time, there was no commitment from BC Stats to inform STC of any future methodology changes."
Please understand, at that time, 2004 and 2005, BC Stats was already using telephone landline hookup data to estimate population to the CSD level. This fact was not stated in the 2005 feasibility study.
Read the letter to the Chief Demographer for Statistics Canada
The Minister of Justice is told by administration staff about the dismissal of the BC Government Population Analyst (the Author - myself) who raised concerns about the use of non-statistical and substandard methods and models to create population numbers used to justify opening and closing of public and private facilities.
June 22, 2012
BC government advisors tell the Minister of Justice and Attorney General, Shirley Bond "the matter you have raised has been dealt with".
For raising concerns about the real methods used to create population numbers in a grievance to the Deputy Minister, and prior to a reply from the Deputy Minister, I, BC Stats' Population Analyst, was dismissed for insubordination and just cause. Requests for the disclosure to be allowed to continue were denied by the Ministry of Labour and Citizen's Services. That is how "the matter you have raised has been dealt with".
Read the letter from the Minister of Justice and Attorney General, Shirley Bond
Disclosure harmful to intergovernmental relations or negotiations
June 22, 2012
The Freedom of Information Office requested the source referred to by the Assistant Deputy Minister on behalf of the Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government - Minister, Margaret MacDiarmid.
"Please be advised the records you requested are withheld in their entirety pursuant to section 16 (Disclosure harmful to intergovernmental relations or negotiations) of FOIPPA."
Read the letter from the Freedom of Information Office
Review of BC Stats integrity and independence is required!
June 18, 2012
"Statistics Canada’s Demography Division has confirmed (again) that BC Stats did not inform Statistics Canada (STC) of the real methods used to create the population estimates (June 18, 2012). Nor did BC Stats provide the correct error calculations."
Read the letter from the Chief Demographer for Statistics Canada Chief Demographer for Statistics Canada
Read the Conclusions of Finance Canada showing that BC Stats sent false information to Statistics Canada.
BC Stats did not inform STC of BC Stats' changes to the methods made in 2001-2002 and again in 2004. BC Stat did not inform users including STC of the use of telephone landline hookup data from Telus since 2001-2002, along with electrical landline data, nor did BC Stats explain that BC municipalites were split into two groups run in two regressions, with one group receiving compound growth, then rejoined.
Minister of Justice does have a role in cases where disclosure is blocked because the griever described human rights violations
May 28, 2012
Please be aware that while "it appears" that this matter was dealt with, I have evidence that proves this matter has not been dealt with.
Indeed, cases where BC Government Employees are denied protection under the law because they describe discrimination on grounds covered by the BC Human Rights Code and the Canadian Charter of Rights are within the mandate of the Minister of Justice and Attorney General.
Read the letter to the Minister of Justice
Read the email to the Minister of Justice cc to email@example.com; and others
The Attorney General's office addresses "concerns regarding your dismissal from BC Stats"
May 23, 2012
but suggest, in their reply to my May 3, 2012 letter, "It appears that this matter has been dealt".
Instead, the Attorney General's office points me to the courts, and lawyers.
My requests to lawyers began in June 2006... here are some examples of correspondence:
The first lawyer took $3,000 then did nothing except to say that for describing human rights violations I would look like a "whiner"; another BC Lawyer stated that Government Employees give up all their individual rights to be part of a collective; The BC Human Rights Tribunal said "go to the BC Supreme Court"; another lawyer said "do you have deep pockets"; another, "you may have to mortage your home"; another, said something to the effect ...the Supreme Court is making people pay if they are found to have wasted the Court's time; another, "get out of population analysis".
Read the letter from the Minister of Justice
Letter to Demography Division of Statistics Canada, "Could you please help us understand an issue regarding the different methods used by BC Stats and those used by Statistics Canada to estimate population to the sub-provincial level."
May 17, 2012
"We have been told by the BC Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government that, "In a 2005 feasibility study prepared by Statistics Canada (STC) for Finance Canada, the agency concluded that: ...population estimates produced by three provincial/territorial statistical agencies (Quebec, British Columbia, Northwest Territories) were all found to be of better quality when compared with those based on any of the three STC methods."
"However, Statistics Canada’s Demography Division was not aware that BC Stats was using the change in telephone landline hookups as an indicator of population change to the municipal level in BC."
Read the letter to the Demography Division, Statistics Canada
Letter to Freedom of Information Office asking for the title and a copy of the feasibility study
May 17, 2012
"In a letter dated November 22, 2011, to William Warren Munroe from the Service BC, Assistant Deputy, B. Hughes, we were told ...
"In a 2005 feasibility study prepared by Statistics Canada (STC) for Finance Canada, the agency concluded ...
...could you please ask the Minister (Ministry) to provide the full reference to this study.
See http://www.wminfomatics.com/WMAnalytics/Articles/120127/PopEstWhat.html Thank you.
Read the letter to the Freedom of Information Office
To read the reply, go to June 22, 2012 "Disclosure harmful to intergovernmental relations or negotiations"
There is no process within the BC Provincial government to address dismissals of employees who suggest improvements
May 16, 2012
Even the NDP Critic for the Ministry of Justice is not familiar with Labour Law ... but who is?
Read the email to the NDP Justice Critic
Minister of Justice to ensure dismissed Employees are not refused arbitration because of the Employees ancestry, or any other grounds covered by the BC Human Rights Code.
May 14, 2012
Please ensure arbitrators do not block proceedings to address dismissal grievances where the griever describes human rights violations
Was the Arbitrator, Vince Ready, aware, the Population Analyst was dismissed shortly after submitting a grievance to the Deputy Minister, Gordon Macatee?
May 7, 2012
...and why did the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services not allow the disclosure of the real methods used to create population numbers to proceed?
Instead, the arbitrator, chosen from a select few on a special list made by the BCGEU and the BCPSA, agreed (October 2007) with the Ministry, the griever did not go down the proper channels by informing the Deputy Minister; therefore, the Ministry was successful in not allowing the disclosure to proceed.
Curiously, I, the Population Analyst, was removed from two courses (September and November 2005) designed to explain the proper channels.
Read the letter to the Arbitrator, Vince Ready asking for confirmation he was not aware of the grievance submitted January 30, 2006, and the dismissal (before a ruling was made) February 15, 2006 - shorty after the respondant, the manager, returned from vacation.
Request to Minister of Justice to allow disclosure to proceed
May 3, 2012
Shortly after filing a grievance wherein I began to disclose to the Deputy Minister, some of the real methods (not published) used by BC Stats, disclosure was abruptly stopped when I was ordered to gather my belongings, turn in my security pass, and leave my office and the BC Stats building.
A year and a half after being fired, an Arbiter agreed with the Ministry to impose a block thereby stopping proceedings; however, the Arbitrator was not aware that a grievance was filed prior to the dismissal.
Read the letter to the Minister of Justice.
Read the email from the Minister of Justice.
The Ministry stopped disclosure of the real methods used to justify closing public schools.
May 2, 2012
Dear MLA Ron Cantelon,
...please advocate to the Minister of Labour and Citizens’ Services to remove the block to arbitration, imposed by the Ministry; thereby, allowing a fair hearing disclosing the real methods used by BC Stats. BC Stats numbers are used by School Boards, BC Hydro, ElectionsBC etc.. Allowing arbitration to proceed addresses the goal of the public service:
"to share a desire to improve the quality of the Public Service of British Columbia
Read the letter to MLA Cantelon.
Unsafe Work Conditions Imposed and Maintained by the Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government
April 28, 2012
The Population Analyst for BC Stats, of the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services was dismissed shortly after informing the Deputy Minister about some of the non-statistical methods used to create population numbers. Instead of investigating and allowing the grievance to proceed, the Ministry accused the Population Analyst of not being able to control his behaviour (making a disclosure? The Ministry has yet to describe the specific behaviour) and that this inability was said to make co-workers feel unsafe.
The Ministry continues to refuse to allow the grievance to proceed and refuses to describe the unsafe behaviour.
Read the Open Letter Honourable Margaret MacDiarmid, Minister, Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government.
Conditions Resulting in Leaky Condos Continue to be Perpetuated by Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services.
April 25, 2012
The emphasis on "business finesse and marketing" rather "than on down-to-earth building basics" has burdened BC citizens with an estimated $4,000,000,000 (4 billion dollars) in extra debt just from the Leaky Condos.
The costly mistakes resulting from the emphasis by the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services on "looks" rather than "ground truthing" - from reference to numbers created BC Stat, have yet to be calculated.
Just one example, was the recommendation to close a public school due to "declining" enrolment only 7 years after a $9,100,000 (9.1 million dollars) school expansion was opened.
Read more about how many costly mistakes can easily be avoided, as well as the letter to the Minister of Labour, Citizens' Services, and now Open Government.
ps. The only statement by the BCGEU rep, Jan O'Brian, to the Arbitrator (June 22, 2007, over one year after being fired) was something to the effect that "Mr. Munroe is a construction worker who returned to university late in life". The classist, elitism expounded by the Executive Director of BC Stats is shared with Ms. O'Brian who was the Vice Chair for the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services, Labour Relations Board.
Participation in Global Knowledge Economy starts Locally
April 18, 2012
Communities that encourage public consultation, scientific inquiry, the exchange of information, thoughtful discussion, and engage students, young and old, in local issues are both better informed and better able to participate, and gain high paying jobs, in the growing global knowledge economy.Read more ...
"to share a desire to improve the quality of the Public Service of British Columbia"
March 30, 2012
Allowing a hearing into the real methods used by BC Stats would be a step toward this, the goal of the public service. This would then allow the disclosure of information regarding the real methods used by BC Stats to create population numbers used to justify the opening and closing of public and private facilities.
Read the request to the Minister of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government to remove the block to proceedings, in accordance to the Labour Code sent via email to the Minister and all BC MLAs
10 Steps the BC Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services Uses to Dismiss Employees Who Provide Solutions to Reduce Errors in Official Statistics for "Just Cause"
March 7, 2012
After asking for assistance to deal with discrimination including aggressive yelling, the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Service took steps to ensure I, the Population Analyst, would be dismissed for "just cause".
BC Ministry stops disclosure proceeding requiring Employee to be "assessed"
February 28, 2012
Rather than addressing the opportunity to improve the reliability of the population numbers (being used by Utilities, Ministries, Parents concerned about the numbers used justify closing schools etc.), the Ministry stopped the disclosure by firing me, the Pop Analyst.
A week later, the Ministry ordered the Pop Analyst (myself) to return to work and to take counseling designed for employees whose documented work performance (I had an excellent work record with no documented performance issues) and whom the Ministry "believes" the problems at work are a result of problems in the employees home.
Read the letter to the counselor, and reply regarding the misuse of the BC Employee Family Assistance Program in order to stop the disclosure of the problems in the Ministry.
Why does the Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government continue to block the disclosure of the real methods used by BC Stats?
February 15, 2012
Open letter to BC's MLAs,
On this day, six years ago, February 15, 2006, the recently appointed manager of BC Stats Population Section, Dave O’Neil, ordered me, BC Stats’ Population Analyst, to close my office window, leave my computer on, gather my belongings, turn in my security pass, and leave the building.
My grievance, January 30, 2006, had yet to be ruled upon when this dismissal took place. In the grievance, I had:
1) described the dysfunction in the Population Section including the use of non-statistical and substandard methods to create population numbers used to justify opening and closing public facilities including schools, (e.g. using the change in number of telephone, along with electrical, landline hookups as an indicator of population change) and
2) requested mediation to address the accusation by Mr. O’Neil (made after I requested assistance in addressing yelling directed towards me) that I made co-workers feel unsafe.
Is it true, does Statistics Canada consider BC Stats' population estimation methods to be of "better quality"?
January 27, 2012
However, Statistics Canada's Demography Division says that BC Stats' did not consult with the Demography Division regarding BC Stats use of the change in telephone landlines hookups to estimate population change. Read more...
Is it true, does Statistics Canada consider BC Stats' population estimation methods to be of "better quality"?
November 22, 2011
The Assistant Deputy Minister asserts the integrity of BC Stats quoting a study by Statistics Canada,
" ...population estimates produced by three provincial/territorial statistical agencies (Quebec, British Columbia, Northwest Territories) were all found to be of better quality when compared with those based on any of the three STC methods. " Oh, really?
Did BC Statistics send Statistics Canada the real methods? Statistics Canada says different.
Read the Statement from Statistics Canada.
Misinformation from BC Stats while real methods not publicized,
November 12, 2011
Not only did the Executive Director of BC, Don McRae, and the Director of the Population Section, Dave O'Neil not inform citizens of the real methods, and not only did they give incorrect information to clients such as BC Hydro and ElectionsBC, but they also misinformed their own colleagues. This is what can happen when a small group of people, the Population Section of BC Stats, hide their methods.
A timely and fair hearing into why the Population Analyst (myself) was abruptly fired while a grievance was before the Deputy Minister would have addressed the real problems before further decisions would be made using unreliable information, such as closing more schools than necessary. Letter to MLA Ron Cantelon, cc. Minister of Labour and Citizens’ Services, Premier of BC.
BC Stats Population Estimates used to justify opening and closing of facilities,
November 9, 2011
MLA Ron Cantelon’s office has provided the Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government Guide To The British Columbia Labour Relations Code wherein it states the Minister has the authority to: "Make appointments of mediators, industrial inquiry commissions, and/or special officers to assist parties in resolving their labour relations disputes."
Margaret MacDiarmid, Minister of Labour, Citizen Services and Open Government, can remove the order to not allow a resolution of the dispute between the Ministry and the Population Analyst the Ministry abruptly dismissed while a grievance was before the Deputy Minister.
As the Population Analyst, I had raised concerns about the non-statistical and substandard methods used to create population numbers.Letter to Minister Margaret MacDiarmid, cc BC Stats and all BC MLAs.
British Columbia’s Official Population Statistics must be verifiable,
November 2, 2011
BC citizens deserve to be able to work with reliable, verifiable well explained population numbers. Methods should be tested and results should be made available for peer review as is done with Statistics Canada.
The Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services and Open Government and the BC Public Service Agency tell us they are working together to " transform the culture of the BC Public Service to one that offers a more positive and productive employment experience." Indeed, Analysts should be allowed to provide creative solutions and advocate openness without reprisals, including dismissal.
Will the Minister allow arbitration to proceed?
Ministers should be informed about the real methods used to create Official Population Statistics,
October 29, 2011
The Minister of Labour, Citizen Services and Open Government should be informed about the real methods used to create Official Population Statistics, disseminated by BC Stats of the Ministry of Labour, Citizen Services and Open Government.
Easily implemented improvements include peer reviews of proposed changes to the methods, publicizing new methods prior to releasing the numbers, as well as allowing verification of the numbers created. Letter to MLA Ron Cantelon, cc. Minister of Labour and Citizens’ Services, Premier of BC.
SUCCESS AT LAST:
October 12, 2011
After a decade of changes to the way population numbers are created without informing clients and the public, BC Stats finally makes public the methods to be used this year...; nonetheless, verification is necessary to ensure the numbers are no longer changed outside of the model. Read more ... .
BC Stats Must Allow Verification of Population Numbers,
September 22, 2011
After 13 years of not publishing changes to the population estimation model, the BC provincial government Official Statistical agency, BC Stats, under new management, has revised the 1998 Generalized Estimation System (GES) methods paper.
During this 13 year "dark" period in BC's Statistics Agency, particularly after 2001, many changes were made to the way population numbers were created, including changing numbers outside of the models without informing clients, or the public.
Since 2001, nearly 200 public schools have been closed in BC. The testing of telephone landline hookups and other changes between 2001 and 2011 should still be published, and a review of the data used to justify closing public schools conducted.
Read more ... with link to a letter to the new Provincial Statistician & Executive Director, BC Stats, Ministry of Labour, Citizens' Services and Open Government, Angelo Cocco.
Reply from BC Stats regarding methods used to create population numbers referred to in report recommending school closure.
August 8, 2011.
Email from BC Stats
Request to BC Stats for real methods used to create population numbers referred to in report recommending school closure.
August 5, 2011.
Email to BC Stats
BC Provincial Government has no process to deal with situations where managers accuse employees who request mediation, of having a psychological problem that makes female co-workers fear for safety,
August 4, 2011.
Letter to MLA Ron Cantelon and all BC MLAs regarding BC Stats errors and coersion for providing solutions
Why did providing solutions to reduce error make co-workers fear for their (job?) safety,
July 4, 2011.
Letter attached to email to MLA Ron Cantelon and all BC MLAs regarding BC Stats errors and coersion for providing solutions, June 30, 2011, and ...
...reply from Mr. Cantelon's office.
NDP Caucus Reseacher Inquiries about Firing of Population Analyst
June 13, 2011.
After sending an email to Citizens Concerned about the recommendation to close a school, Jeff Dean, a NDP Caucus Reseacher wrote to find out more .
In a follow up email, Mr. Dean and all MLAs were informed "Please be aware that arbitration is not being allowed because the griever drew attention to discrimination on grounds covered by the Human Right Code in a letter to the BCGEU and the Deputy Minister within 30 days of being informed of dismissal.
Why are the real methods not published?
March 18, 2011
Letter to Ron Cantelon, MLA for Parksville/Qualicum regarding the proposal to close Kwalikum Secondary School and the real population modeling methodologies,
and Mr. Cantelon's reply.
The Real Reason Gordon Campbell Resigned,
February 26, 2011
Open letter regarding irregularities in the creation of BC’s Official Population Statistics and the firing for raising concerns.
Historical enrolment data justifies keeping school open,
January 30, 2011
Chart used to justify recommendation to close the only Secondary School is incorperated (grey portion) in chart that includes enrolment since 1983 and also includes 3,800 students removed from the Qualicum School District chart (below). Read more...
Full information requests,
Correspondance with Ron Cantelon, MLA for Parksville/Qualicum requesting assistance with access to historical enrolment numbers
BC Stats' Real Methods Need to be Investigated,
October 7, 2010.
Response to Royal Society in London "Call for Evidence" regarding population modeling methodologies and the differences between Statistics Canada and BC Stats. Curiously, Gordon Campbell suddenly resigns.
Enrolment numbers tailored to justify school closure,
October 2, 2010
Chart used to justify recommendation to close the only Secondary School in Qualicum Beach presented October 2, 2010, also printed on the front page of a local newspaper, as well as shown on Vancouver Island TV News. Notice that the y-axis starts at 3,800, effectively removing 3,800 students from the chart. Also, the chart shows enrolment from 2004 to 2024. At the October 2 presentation I requested enrolment data prior to 2004 however, this was slow in coming and the closure was to be voted on in December 2010, so I asked the MLA Ron Cantelon to assist.
This chart was not labeled in the original report from the consultant, presented October 2, 2010, and incorrectly labeled in the final report. See the summary of the public presentation in January 2011 correcting this impression.
Statistical Agencies Analytical Activities,
Advice refused to be disclosed by a head of a public body, regarding email referring to former Statistics Canada's Chief Statistician, Ivan Fellegie's, description of Analytical Activities at Statistics Canada.
Advice to BC Stats Executive Director Immediately Prior to Dismissal of Population Analyst Not Disclosed,
September 27, 2010
Letter to Freedom of Information Commissioner, regarding refusal to disclose advice from Michelle Charbonneau (PSA) to Don McRae, Executive Director of BC Stats, given one day prior to my dismissal from pubic service.
New Evidence Proves BC Provincial Government Efforts to Discriminate
September 13, 2010
Letter to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services...Freedom of Information package highlights
1) the BCPSA reasoning for not allowing discrimination / human rights grievance to proceed is unjustifiable,
2) testimonies were documented and used against Population Analyst of which the Population Analyst was not aware; therefore, the Population Analyst was not able to offer any defense,
3) and the BCPSA was aware the Population Analyst was pursuing a grievance when he was dismissed.
Racial Profiling by BC Stats' Population Manager Regarding Statistics Canada Long Form,
July 22, 2010
Letter to Tony Clement, Federal Minister of Industry regarding BC Stats' Population Section Manager's racial profiling and racial slurs in discussions of analysis of Statistics Canada's 20% sample (long form).
Reference to Human Rights Violations by Population Analyst Used to Deny Arbitration into Real Matters in Dispute,
June 30, 2010
Letter to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services regarding the duplicitous ruling used to cover up human rights, public service, and labour code violations
Freedom of Information Discloses Altered Statements by BC Stats' Executive Director,
May 14, 2010
Email to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services regarding information contained in package from Freedom of Information
What BC Stats did for ElectionsBC for $50,000,
April 23, 2010
Letter to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services highlighting Public Matters regarding ElectionsBC contract.
ElectionsBC is not interested in Quality of Population Projections,
April 16, 2010
Reply from ElectionsBC expressing no interest in quality of work done by BCStats.
Description of Human Rights Violations Used by BCPSA to Deny Arbitration into Real Matters in Dispute,
April 9, 2010
Letter to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services regarding decision by Arbitrator to not allow arbitation for having raised Human Rights issues. The BCPSA lawyer proclaimed adamently, "THIS IS NOT A HUMAN RIGHTS CASE!" The next reply from Ministers for Labour and CS and OG arrived via email, in response to my request for clarifiction of BC Stats real methods... go to November 2011. Read more...
Government Investigation Results Request,
March 24, 2010
Email to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services requesting investigation report. Read more...
Freedom of Information Requests,
February 10, 2010
Requests for clarification made in December 2009 are still not answered Read request ...
BC Ministers responsibilities to research and evaluate problems,
February 1, 2010
Letter to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services regarding responsibilities to research and evaluate problems.
Elections BC's $50,000 contract,
December 23, 2009
Description of how the Elections BC's $50,000 contract was done (referring to a map on the internet to guess the population for Electoral Districts in BC), and the consequences for developing a model using GIS.
The package from the FOI request reveals that the Executive Director of BC Stats, Don McRae, said I was not aggressive but rather intense. So that's why I was subjected to discrimination including dismissal ... because I was thought to be intense.
The Executive Director was the person who thought that using the change in telephone landline hookups, as an indicator of population change, was a good idea. Too bad the Executive Director didn't test that hypothesis as would be befitting of an Official Statistical Agency. Instead he chose to use the Population Analyst (me), who was providing solutions to the many problems, as a scape goat - to take the blame for his, Don McRae's, lack of quality. Bizarre.
Government Claims Records Made by Stenographer at Hearing Used to Deny Arbitration were Never Made,
November 30, 2009
BC Government falsely claims "there was no recording made of the meeting [preliminary hearing where the arbitrator decided not to allow arbitration to proceed] and therefore no transcripts." Read more ...
Request for a fair hearing into the real matters in dispute, as soon as possible,
November 25, 2009
Email to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services, with June 10, 2009 letter to BC Human Rights Tribunal and LRB attached...again.
Finally, the Freedom of Information Office replies to the March 21, 2009 request for access to personal files, August 27, 2009, including ...
...the transcripts from the October 13th 2005 meeting with Carol Gore, the transcripts from the June 22, 2007 meeting with Vince Ready; and the book of documents from the BCPSA given to Vince Ready on June 22, 2007. Read the letter from FOI.
Ministers Can Investigate,
September 30, 2009
Hostilities increased when the Population Analyst's projects were successful including: estatsBC, Regional Index Online, Population Estimates Model, the Monthly Interprovincial Migration Estimates Model, the Liquids database for current events, etc.
These and other issues are explained in a letter to BC Ministers of Labour and of Citizens' Services requesting that arbitration, with regard to the real matters in dispute, be allowed to proceed, with a list of questions. Read more...
LRB replies pretending that the case is too old for them to be able to think about,
June 22, 2009.
Here again is another example of how the government doesn't work. The LRB pretended that the case ended in 2007; therefore, the Population Analyst did not have the right to a fair and timely hearing.
Read the letter from the LRB showing the laziness and lack of competence therein. Recall, the BCGEU representative, Jan O'Brian, was a vice-chair for the LRB prior to revolving positions. She also co-authored to Judd case, 2003, protecting the BCGEU. No wonder I was not allowed to take courses about the Master Agreement from both the BCPSA and the BCGEU. They do not want people to be informed, but rather ill informed and easily brutalized. Bizarre.
Discrimination in Contravention of the BC Human Rights,
June 10, 2009
My solutions which reduced errors in the BC Stats population estimates and forecasts were considered confrontational by the long time employees one of whom was given the manager position. Subsequently, I was accused of not being able to control my behaviour (what behaviour, I have yet to be told) which made a co-worker, revised in June 2007 to two female coworkers, fear for their safety.
My requests for mediation were denied and I was required to submit a grievance. While the grievance was before the Deputy Minister, I was subjected to a mock firing in another attempt to coerce, threaten, and intimidate me, because I filed a complaint, and was about to participate in proceedings covered by the Labour Code, in contravention of the Labour Code, Section 5 (1).
These and other issues are explained in a letter to the Labour Relations Board, and the BC Human Rights Tribunal, with facts and relevant acts proving violations of the Public Service Act, the Labour Code, and the Human Rights Code by the Ministry, the BCPSA, and the BCGEU. Read more...
For 3 1/2 years the BCPSA, and the BCGEU put me thru many ever changing hoops in an effort to not allow a fair hearing into the real matters in dispute, namely the use of substandard and non-statistical methods used to create Official Population Statistics, to June 2009.
A First for BC Government? Without A Submission and Without the $200 Fee, the LRB Reviews it's June 2008 Verdict and Decides Again Not to Allow Arbitration into the Real Matters in Dispute,
October 29, 2008
This advisarial process with no fundamental fairness took 3 and a half years, from the time the grievance began in March 2005 to this October 29, 2008 self interested (the LRB is overseen by the Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services), self supporting (the MLCS and LRB claim they did everything right), decison, to not allow arbitration to proceed. Why would the Ministry not want a review of the use of substandard and non-statistical used to create Official Population Statistics?
For the next seven months between November 2008 and June 2009, I had to dedicate my time souly to learning the legal lingo in an effort to put forward my case. I made several intensive efforts contacting over one hundred lawyers in and outside of BC to represent me with only two replies by two private firms. In one phone call, I was told it would cost $50,000 and when I mentioned the issue of ancestry the lawyer said "good luck"and hung up.
The other lawyer, a kindly gentleman past retirement, suggested that I get out of working in population analysis and he would not be able to help me... but he did point me to the law library. Also, I did get some very helpful information from an advocacy group regarding the fact that I did not have to prove that I have a mental disorder to utilize the human rights procedure. During this time I read as much as I could find on the internet and in the law library in Nanaimo. This research, along with finding old emails and scanning in documents, helped me forward my case. I was able to find out that I do have a sound case and that I must prepare to ask the Supreme Court for a continuance, to allow arbitration to proceed.
I also found out that the Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services can also allow arbitration to proceed. Also, I could ask the lieutenant governor for a public inquiry. However, such an inquiry could possibly be closed to the public. After the ridiculaous efforts made by the BCPSAgency contract lawyer to discredit me and the continued unfair representation by the BCGEU advocate and former LRB Vice Chair, I see that a public inquiry will be necessary to ensure verification of the real methods and models used to create official population statistics. See the revised Data Warning webpage ...
Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services resigns suddenly
June 23, 2008
In May, the Minister assured me that the LRB is independent (however, the MLCS appoints the LRB ) .
The day after the kanagroo court type hearing (telling, yelling ... what is it with these people?), the Minister resigned.
From an article titled "Bennett blasts 'abusive' Campbell" in the Vernon Morning Star - By Tom Fletcher - BC Local News - November 17, 2010
"In recent days [Kootenay East MLA Bill] Bennett made public comments criticizing Campbell's cabinet shuffle and his decision to stay on as premier until February. Wednesday he amplified those criticisms, saying cabinet ministers Carole Taylor, Olga Ilich and Christy Clark left because of Campbell's intimidating presence and intolerance of dissent.
The first time he got angry with me, I simply said as a backbencher in my first year, I thought the caucus retreat wasn't very effective," Bennett said. "And he got so angry with me that he got in my face. He was so angry he actually spit in my face. He's not a nice man."
Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services Labour Relations Board Ruling to leave block to arbitration in place
June 22, 2008
the LRB decides to not allow arbitration. See the Original Data Warning webpage ...
After having taken over 8 months to reply, the LRB representative sets a 15 day deadline to come up with substantive issues. As a long time lawyer said, "Something stinks about this case".
Request to LRB about time for decision,
January 2008 to June 2008
I was told there is no time limit February 2008. I sent requests to MLAs thru March 2008 ... A NDP Labour critic staffer called by phone and suggested that I contact the Minister. April 2008. May 2008, the Minister, Olga Ilich, replied saying she would not interfere with the LRB's decision.
BC Stats' Executive Director goes on CBC Radio Claiming Close Ties to Statistics Canada,
December 5, 2007
BC Stats' Executive Director, Don McRae describes to CBC listeners how BC is attractive to migrants, claiming that BC is "tolerant"; however, he does not explain how BC Stats is very different from Statistics Canada, both in terms of independance from outside influence and quality of work.
These and other issues are described in a letter to CBC, sent the day after the interview with Don McRae, describing the real methods; eg. telephone data with electrical; lowering numbers outside the model.
Read Mark Forsyth's question with reply , December 6, 2007.
Request Arbitration and Natural Justice sent to the LRB
October 19, 2007:
Statements made in request for arbitration.
"The quality of the work done by the Population Section is at the heart of this issue."
"For example, the use of the change in telephone land lines as an indicator of population change was implemented without proper statistical testing (cell phones makes this indicator suspect), as was the splitting of the municipalities into two groups. Also, the Provincial Electoral District Population Estimates and Projections were created using non statistical methods. Databases were unorganized and incorrectly labeled. The Ministry of Finance changed the migration projection arbitrarily, lowering it 7,000 people below model projections. Since the migration numbers were low for the lower mainland, (7,000 people missing and cell phone use) I was ordered to take people out of Comox/Courtenay and other high growth areas (Kelowna) and told to put them into Richmond and Burnaby (telephone hookups had dropped) and I refused." Read more...
BCGEU is not interested in discussing discrimination
May 4, 2007
Jan O'Brian, former Vice Chair of the Labour Relations Board, had told me that I could trust her; however, she drops the case and does not address discrimination on grounds covered by human rights code. Read more...
BC Stats kicks out Outliers from full dataset in an effort to reduce error,
BC Stats also kicks out Analysts who provide solutions to reduce error without kicking out outliers. Email link sent to family and friends and interested folks across Canada describing Don McRae's order to kick out outliers in an effort to reduce the error in the population estimation model (GES) Read more...
Ordered to Leave and Take Belongings
February 16 2006.
The day after being ordered to leave and take my belongings, Michelle Charbonneau, PSA:EX wrote I was asked to leave. This is not what happened. I was ordered to leave. Read the notes made by Michelle Charbonneau.
Ordered to Leave and Take Belongings
February 15 2006.
I was ordered to resume the population projection meetings. The population projection meetings were the meetings where (my co-worker contends) I made her feel unsafe.
Being that a safety issue (my co-worker feeling unsafe because of me) I wanted to be able to address this issue before resuming these meetings.
At these meetings only me, my co-worker, and the manager who first made the accusation, would be in attendence. Given the seriousness of the accusation I requested mediation but this was denied and required to attend.
Instead of mediation to address the accusation, the manager and the shop steward came in. I was ordered to close the window, leave the computer on, gather my belongings, turn in my security pass and vacate the building.
Update (January 2014) - In 2010, I found out that BC Statistics still had not informed the public that the population estimation methods, used as the foundation to create projections, used in turn to justify policy-making, including school closures, had changed, many times.
I knew that the methods (from 1998) provided to parents/guardians and concerned citizens addressing public school closures, were not the methods used since 2001. When this issue, incorrect methods accompanying government products, was raised, the Ministry responsible chose to withhold an assessment of the methods claiming "disclosure harmful". Regardless, I did ask for and receive a copy of the assessment from Statistics Canada.
In June 2012, I received a letter from Statistics Canada that proves that in 2005, BC Statistics sent incorrect population statistics to Statistics Canada for equalization payments. I realized that I was subjected to a wrongful dismissal because the position I held (Population Analyst) required that I would learn about the false reporting. In order to cover their deception, they needed to remove me from the contacts list (which they did) and create an antagonistic work environment (which they did, including aggressive yelling, directed at me) - thank you for your apology Frank (Frank Ip - International migration, BC Statistics), accussed me of making a co-worker fear for her safety, ignored my requests for mediation, required me to have an "assessment" and dismissed me for insubordination.
Through the rest of 2012 and 2013, I raised awareness about the importance of making sure that the correct methods accompany "findings", including a presentation, June 6, 2013, at the 2013 Congress in Victoria, BC where the two people who accused me of causing fear, Jennifer Hansen and Dave O'Neil, were in attendence. For the first time in over 7 years I had a chance to face my accusers. When I showed the audience the falsification, Jennifer Hansen and Dave O'Neil turned darker and darker shades of red. Dave O'Neil turned almost purple and shifted back and forth on his seat looking very uncomfortable. After the presentation neither Jennifer Hansen or Dave O'Neil made a comment or ask any questions, choosing instead to leave without saying anything.
My requests for arbitration continue.
The day before I was ordered to gether my belongings and leave the building
February 14 2006.
Mediation I requested, to address accusations that I made co-workers feel unsafe, were denied by Don McRae again.
Email I sent to Executive Director, Don McRae, including a copy of Ivan Fellegi's 1999 speech to the STATISTICAL COMMISSION and ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS
Events Leading Up To Firing
Prior to February 15, 2006
Go to the Journal page for an insiders look at the way BC Stats' numbers are created.
1 The 1998 methods were revised in 2011 stating some of the changes during this time period "After extensive analyses it was later determined that telephone line data (Telus) was a suitable indicator and was subsequently added to the model in 2000. With the availability of the 2001 census and further model development it was indicated that the OAS data were no longer statistically significant and were dropped from the model in 2003." P. 8 GENERALIZATION ESTIMATION SYSTEM (GES) Small Area Population Estimation, Method and Error Evaluation, August 2011, (GES 2011).
2 "Please be advised the records you requested are withheld in their entirety pursuant to section 16 (Disclosure harmful to intergovernmental relations or negotiations) of FOIPPA."
June 22, letter from the Freedom of Information Office
3 "BC Stats produces its CSD-level population estimates using regression methods with specific symptomatic indicators (number of residential electrical connections and Old Age Security (OAS) recipients). For more details on the methodology, see Generalized Estimation System (GES), Small Area Population Estimation Methodology published by BC Stats in 1998 and available on their website. "The Equalization Program and the Property Tax Base: Feasibility Study Conducted by Statistics Canada", February 28, 2005, p. 63 Conclusions of Finance Canada received June 18, 2012